Combines Biofuel plants

I have a plant 10 miles from me that is under construction due to open in about a year. I think with the run up in corn price this past fall investors saw how vulnerable these plants are to the swings in corn price. In Nebraska, as well as other states, there has just been a frenzy to get on board to have a plant irregardless in some cases of logistics to securing grain and having adequate supply and rail service. I think in the long run some of the plants located in less than ideal locations will fail when margins decline due to competition with other plants and other technology such as cellulosic. When they fail, I believe they will be bought out for a fraction of what they originally cost and then be able to operate since their overhead and debt will be millions less. The worst that could happen for the ethanol industry as a whole right now would be to have corn go to $5.00 or more and stay there for 6 months. I think that could shut the ethanol industry down and stop any future developement. If we could stay where we're at today or a little lower the industry could continue to steadily grow.

It seems that we are at the mercy of the oil industry too much. With the profits they have made in the last year they can drop the oil price way down and kill the bio fuel industry.The upside to that is then they will buy the plants for 50 cents on the dollar and be able to turn a profit. If that happens maybe then our corn market will stablize.

There are a couple of big players in the commod market, Sachs Goldman and Aig and another. Market is sold to about 98%, if they find another investment to their liking and take their profit, it could take a buck and a half out of the price, on the other hand any bump in the road in the price of crude could add a buck. Sell cash at these prices and do the calls_puts thingy - anything other than that is no better than going to Vegas and rolling the dice.

The oil industry has the ethanol plants by the you know whats.

My ethanol plant investment is being built now. OPEC and the rest know how to play us....always have. Prices up on corn....Great.....oil prices down Great. Make it one ...maybe lose a little on other end. What are the odds of corn staying above $3.50 and fuel at $2.00 per gallonIJIJIJIJ I say not real good. I would pay extra to have a portion of our fuel from here not from terrorist affliated groups abroad. We suffered through the Jimmy Carter years and did nothing to become more independent.......I am putting my money where my mouth is this time. We need to be more independent....Ethanol is a small piece....glad to invest. No foreign cars or trucks will be parked in my garage either.