FROM A DEAlER'S PERSPECTIVE i have been involved in the machinery industry for 40 years and have seen many changes in that time. having been a NH and later FIAT territory salesman, a CASE_WHITE_NH dealer and now a used equipment dealer_farmer, these changes will continue. here are some of my observations: 1. each 100 hp tractor replaces 3 40 hp tractors, each 200 hp tractor replaces 3 100 hp tractors. 2. each 8010 combine replaces 10 715_815 combines 3. each 3000 acre farmer replaces 10 300 acre farmer. each 30,000 acre producer replaces 10 3000 acre farmers. 4. at a certain point, a farmer turns into a producer and a dealer turns into a business man. 5. dealers want to do business with farmers and businessmen want to do business with producers. 6. large farm equipment companies look only at numbers and follow the "hollow" structure of producers, and businessmen that only watch the numbers without regard to societal changes and needs, and good stewardship of the land. 7. each machine has a capacity_longevity relationship developed by the manufacturing company designed to keep the factory going. some things that are already happening: 1. there is a shortage of small equipment for the small farmer. 2. there is a glut of huge equipment on the market for high prices as compared to the condition of the equipment and the design of that equipment. i.e. planned obselence 3. farm equipment companies are reducing the number of accounts they deal with in favour of giving 1 account a larger "territory" that they can establish outlet stores so as to better control pricing and inventory and thus profit margin. 4. farmers will continue to increase in size and thus decrease the number of farmers in a particular dealer's trade area. 5. there is a critical point of farmer population_unitland mass that is required to maintain a certain dealer population. when this point is reached the dealer population starts to dwindle. for example, let's say a dealer needs 100 farmers to be successful, so 3 dealers need 300 customers or more. at 250_275 customers, a 3 dealer town will lose a dealer and things will be ok for a while, at 150_175 customers, another dealer goes out and when the number of farmers goes lower the last dealer sells out or amalgamates with another dealer. total service deteriorates. 6. farmer numbers, dealer numbers, farm equipment company numbers will continue to decrease. farm equipment companies will swing their focus away from the farm equipment market. farm sizes, farm equipment sizes and farm equipment prices will continue to rise. 7. as a farmer gets larger and becomes a producer_businessman, they tend to purchase less product locally when it comes to the big items, but rely on the local dealer to be there for service, warranty and parts. 8. the current system will not change until there is a total collapse. i.e. when we had the mass exodus of tractor(under 100 hp) production away from north america. 9. current continental political agreements hinder the development and importation of equipment into north america, that would improve the productivity of every farmer ( that's correct - farmer not producer). i have rambled here...............it's hard to watch the industry, one is involved in change so adversely and be able to do nothing except stand there and watch things change. my machinery life has been good to me over this past 40 years and when i see the farmer numbers reduced to the point where land is being left idle - an opportunity stares me in the face. people need to eat and people need to feed their animals. there is a place out there for a farmer - a small farmer that can make money and make a good living. my 2 cents for what it's worth FarmerTom